The war between northern and southern New Jersey took another ill turn for Hudson County when State Assembly Speaker Vincent Prieto failed to put forth his bill on the Atlantic City bailout.
Political observers claim Prieto just couldn’t collect enough Assembly votes to make a good show, and rather than get embarrassed by seeing his bill go down in flames, he put it in his pocket.
Although the future of Atlantic City was the subject of the conflict, the fight between north and south Jersey is largely a test of strength, a kind of litmus test to determine who might be the next governor.
“People around the state really like Steve Sweeney,” said one source, referring to state Senate President Stephen Sweeney, who is one of the serious contenders for the Democratic nomination for governor in 2017.
By inference, this source suggested that Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop is less well-liked around the state, despite his political machinations towards winning the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.
“I don’t see Fulop winning as governor,” this source said. “He might not even win all of Jersey City.”
It is difficult to know how valid an observation this is. But a number of people who supported Fulop as a reformer have become critics.
And there is always someone waiting in the wings to take a shot at replacing him as mayor.
Unless Fulop comes to terms with state Sen. Ray Lesniak, he may have problems even in the heart of Hudson County.
Fulop’s path to the State House appears to rely on a strong turnout of votes from the three biggest cities in the state, Jersey City, Newark, and Paterson.
North Jersey has always been voter-dense, and so this appears to be a good strategy on the surface. But it doesn’t always work.
Sweeney’s geographical territory is less dense, stretching across the state.
Sweeney meanwhile hopes to steal some Fulop votes by galvanizing the anti-urban vote in the counties around these cities.
But Sweeney might – with the help of Republican Gov. Christopher Christie – win places like Camden and Atlantic City.
That’s what makes the Prieto-Sweeney conflict such a powerful political tool. Sweeney may be able to convince voters through the rest of the state that Prieto – and by default, Fulop – could care less about the future of municipalities in the southernmost reaches of the state.
Christie pulls a trump card
Meanwhile, it appears that Christie has once more managed to land on his feet.
Some people thought he was crazy when he endorsed Donald Trump for president, rather than a more mainstream Republican candidate.
But Christie reads the political tea leaves better than most. Trump has named Christie to head his transition team, and has suggested that Christie is on the short list to become his vice presidential candidate. Some, however, believe Christie may be seeking to become the next U.S. attorney general, if somehow Trump can work his magic to beat Hillary Clinton. Pollsters claim that the race between Trump and Clinton is already too close to call, and that the candidates are in a dead heat in the three critical states: Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio.
This could be a repeat of the 2000 election, when Supreme Court Justice Anthony Scalia handed the election to George W. Bush by swinging the court to support his claim of victory.
Hold onto your hanging chads. 2016 could be another nail-biter. Of course, with the death of Scalia, the Supreme Court is equally divided between liberals and conservatives, leaving it unable to render a ruling if called on.
In a New York state of mind?
Some people wonder what the Trump presidency will look like if he is elected.
One observer believes Trump will draft old friends from the New York region, such as former New York City Mayor Rudi Giuliani, Christie, and others of a similar ilk.
Trump’s current campaign against Clinton appears to center on using her husband against her. Trump has called Hillary “an enabler” for overlooking former President Bill Clinton’s alleged indiscretions.
This is a mistaken strategy if it’s aimed at stealing the female vote. But it shows just how out of touch with women’s issues Trump is.
Many women in America have had to suffer through the same situations as Hillary in regards to a husband’s alleged womanizing. The experience of being loyal to a man who doesn’t deserve it may well make them more sympathetic to Hillary, not less.
Trump’s attacks on Bill and Hillary bring a typical male morality to a complex relationship, and like most things, Trump’s answer is simply too simplistic.
Yet, some observers believe that this is also his strength, since his soundbite philosophizing will appeal to voters who are sick and tired of trying to sort through complex answers. Trump will get his votes because his answers seem logical.
The real problem will come when and if he attempts to apply that logic to the world once he actually gets into office.
Perhaps as with a similarly simple-minded President Ronald Reagan, Trump will be just wise enough to appoint competent people, who will actually do the work of running the country.
Bayonne superintendent contract will not be renewed
Although not yet official, the handwriting on the wall says Dr. Patricia McGeehan can expect to be notified of her termination in June.
While the board is still split between newly-elected reformers who want to replace McGeehan and an old guard appointed by the former mayors who want to keep her, the reformers have a majority.
There are still ill feelings over how the appointed board gave McGeehan a two-year renewal in defiance of Mayor Jimmy Davis in late 2014 just prior to the elected board taking control.
Davis apparently had agreed to give McGeehan a one-year extension.
The reformers currently have a 5-4 majority on the current board, and have come to a consensus not to renew McGeehan’s contract. Under state law, the board must give the superintendent a year’s notice of their intentions.
The board will likely appoint an interim superintendent, who will make a lot of the major moves to restructure the school district over a two-year period. The board will likely do a national search for a new superintendent, who will be taking over most likely in 2019.
Al Sullivan may be reached at asullivan@hudsonreporter.com.