Dear Editor:
Recent news reports have stated that juvenile crime is once again showing declines in national statistics. Everything from more increased police protection to teen violence prevention programs have been touted as the reasons for such a decline. However, I believe there are other more compelling reasons to explain the decline in juvenile violent crime that hold ominous forecasts for the future. In terms of a prevention program, the Rand Corporation has determined that 90% of delinquency prevention programs are ineffective. They stated that “boot camps”, “scared straight programs,” and other high profile juvenile delinquency prevention programs such as wilderness camps and DARE programs, are largely ineffective in preventing juvenile crime. They reported that kids respond well in the short-run but not over the long-term.
A more telling factor can be found in the correlations between the declining juvenile population in America during the 70’s and 80’s and the subsequent decreases in juvenile crime. However, since the 80’s the juvenile population has been rising ever since. In fact, between 1985 and 1995 juvenile homicides rose 90% while adult homicides saw no increase. During that period, violent crimes committed by juveniles jumped 75%. It is predicted by the census bureau that the juvenile population will increase to 73.6 million by 2010. This includes an additional 3 million 14 to 24-year-old males projected for that time. In 1995, the juvenile population was at 69 million. If this national trend continues, the juvenile arrests for violent crimes are likely to double by the year 2010 and youth arrested for murder will increase 145%.
One of the most effective juvenile violence prevention programs that I know of, while expensive, is intensive family counseling. It has been shown to be 85% successful in preventing future crime. The overall cost-to-saving ratio reported by the Rand Corporation is $3.45 to $1.00 spent. However, despite these results most funders have a tendency to support innovative local programs such as wilderness camps and DARE programs despite their inefficiency. Funders have to stop trying to reinvent the wheel and “Put their money with things that work.” Only by such an effort can we prevent what is going to be a burgeoning increase in juvenile crime over the next 10 years.
Ronald J. Coughlin, Ed.D.
President,
N.J. Violence Prevention Institute, Inc.