The withdrawal of Republican Rudy Giuliani and Democrat John Edwards from the presidential primary tightens the race in Hudson County.
While many Republicans in places like Bayonne, Secaucus and towns in west Hudson will likely make an easy transition from Giuliani to John McCain, Hudson Democrats, who saw Edwards as a viable alternative to Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama may have a harder time deciding.
Although Edwards may well have served some as an excuse not to vote for an African American or a woman in the presidential primary, many may also have found Edwards a calming force in an otherwise cantankerous Democratic primary battle, a lackluster candidate who avoided tossing political hand grenades in an effort to win the nomination.
His loss leaves Hudson County Democrats with no choice but to choose between Obama and Clinton.
Giuliani ‘s withdrawal from the race is no surprise. Several local observers claim Giuliani’s decision to avoid early primary races to concentrate on Florida would have worked if McCain, who only two months ago looked on the verge of dropping out, had not surged in Iowa and New Hampshire.
For voters in the Metropolitan area, McCain may actually be more attractive a candidate than Giuliani , despite Giuliani ‘s track record on 9/11. Both McCain and Giuliani are considered moderate Republicans, a brand of Republican many in New Jersey prefer over more hard-line Republican candidates Michael Huckabee and Mitt Romney.
Who benefits from presidential primary?
The presidential primary on Feb. 5 provides local politicians with some unique opportunities.
By moving its primary from June, New Jersey becomes one of the key states in deciding who will be the Democratic candidate in November. By choosing to back the right Democratic candidate, local politicians could benefit significantly.
Jersey City Mayor Jerramiah Healy jumped onto the Obama bandwagon very early, and though some cynics believe this was simply a move to solidify the African American vote for his own reelection in 2009, the move puts Jersey City on the federal patronage map if Obama wins the nomination.
Despite Jersey City Councilman Steve Fulop’s strong support for Clinton, Jersey City seems ready to give strong support to Obama, especially with state Senator Sandra Cunningham, state Assemblyman L. Harvey Smith and other prominent Jersey City politicians bringing Ward F in Jersey City under the Obama banner. Most observers agree, the candidate that wins Ward F will win Jersey City.
One of the questions many people have been asking over the last week is where state Assemblyman and Union City Mayor Brian Stack will go. Although attended a pro-Clinton Rally earlier this year, he did not attend Clinton’s visit to North Bergen last week. Freeholder Tilo Rivas – a Stack ally – withdrew his name as a Clinton delegate raising even more political eyebrows.
Some believe with a freeholder battle looming, Stack will stay relatively neutral in the presidential primary, although rumors have circulated he would throw his support behind Obama at the last moment.
Stack supporters my revolt with or without Stack, partly because of the set up of the voting ballot in North Hudson where West New York Mayor Sal Vega’s name is listed below Clinton as a delegate. Some Stack people, who remember the harsh rhetoric Vega issued against Stack in last year’s primary for state Senate, may find it very difficult to push the button for Clinton and may go to Obama instead.
Some political observers believe Obama’s sudden serge may allow him to win Hudson County and New Jersey, while others believe the primary is coming too soon and that Obama needs more time to win over voters here.
But this won’t be for lack of effort. Except for two rallies, one with Clinton and one without, the Clinton campaign in Hudson County seems nonexistent – a sign that she may be taken the county for granted. On the other hand, Obama people are everywhere, in front of supermarkets and other stores as well as on the telephone urging voters to support him.
The one big loser in this campaign if Clinton loses to Obama, could be Rep. Albio Sires, who many see as the person who should be campaigning hard on her behalf.
This has drawn some comparisons to when U.S. Senator Robert Menendez served as congressman here.
“Menendez had a machine and if you got behind a candidate that candidate was going to win,” one observer said. “I don’t see the same thing happening with Albio.”
If Obama wins, Healy could get presidential support for a Jersey City candidate to challenge Sires in the future.
“Healy has made no secret about wanting the congressional seat back in Jersey City,” another observer said. “This is a way he could accomplish that.”
Another huge winner in an Obama victory would be Hoboken Councilman Michael Russo, who seems to legitimately agree with Obama’s platform.
A Clinton victory, of course, has other ramifications that could be felt throughout the state. While Gov. Jon Corzine claims he has no ambitions to take a cabinet post in a future Clinton Administration, many close to the governor’s office also claim he has his eye on become the Secretary of the Treasury.
Menendez, meanwhile, has been rumored as a possible candidate to replace Corzine as governor, most likely he would get offered a position as an ambassador, possibly the United State representative to the United Nations.
While some have speculated Clinton might tap Menendez to run with her as a vice presidential candidate, this is not likely, since she would need to spread her ticket around so that it has a national appeal. Most likely, she will name Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico as her VP candidate in order to draw votes from the west.
Political tidbits
In a whole different kind of political football, Hoboken Board of Education member Frank Raia and Mike Ryan of CJ Ryan’s eatery attended the New York Giants game against Green Bay. Raia took the Green Bay fan hat – which fans called Green Bay cheese – died it blue and called it blue cheese in support of the Giants. Ryan put another hate on his shoulder, attacked a rubber rat, named it Eli Manning – after the New York Giants quarterback, and claimed the rat was eating the Green Bay cheese.
Needless to say, the two Hudson County residents became a frequent photo opportunity to local and national press.
Jimmy King’s Civic Association in Jersey City hosted Fulop who spoke about the pay to play referendum he is fighting to put on the ballot for November, as well as a second referendum that would ban local elected officials from also holding governmental jobs. About 150 people attended the event.
In apparent support for Sean Conner’s effort to run for Freeholder in the June primary, Stack is expected to open a political club in Jersey City Ward C shortly.