Conservatives really have to be shaking in their boots after the speech made by Donald Trump’s wife at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland this week. Why on earth, if Melania Trump was going to allegedly plagiarize a speech, would she take one given by Michele Obama to the Democratic National Convention in 2008, when there were so many conservatives she could have stolen from?
A number of prominent GOP conservatives already suspect that Trump is not really one of them at heart. Some even believe that he is part of a conspiracy hatched between himself and Democratic presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton to dismantle the Republican Party so Clinton wins in November.
Trump has said enough stupid things on his way to cinching the nomination on Tuesday to derail his chances again and again. Yet somehow, he has become the new “Teflon Don.” Democrats foolishly believe that his nomination will bring out Clinton voters, when perhaps the opposite is true. If there was a conspiracy between Trump and Clinton, it backfired.
While Mrs. Trump’s speech is one more blunder in an endless stream of political blunders, the real threat to Trump comes from the Republicans he has alienated. Some reports suggest that the Trump campaign is largely made up of insiders who are telling the more traditional GOP to get on the Trump train or get left behind. This is very similar to the message the Clinton team told to Bernie Sanders’ supporters.
If that is the message, apparently Texas Sen. Ted Cruz didn’t get the memo. He incurred the wrath of Trump supporters Wednesday night when he spoke at length but never endorsed the candidate, and the next day defended that by saying he’d never endorse a candidate who insulted his wife and his father.
GOP will come out for Trump
While the media plays up some of the GOP fractures, Republicans will likely come together despite their differences.
The party has a lot of good reasons to support Trump. Die-hard Trump supporters won’t be fazed by Mrs. Trump’s alleged plagiarism, since many of the key elements of the Trump campaign come from previous successful GOP campaigns, such as those of Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon.
Many Trump supporters blame the media for playing up the speech controversy and ignoring the central message of the convention: law and order.
The convention comes at a critical time, when police officers have been killed in alleged retaliation for the deaths of African-Americans at the hands of law enforcement.
These assaults on cops have the potential to sway doubtful GOP voters into the Trump camp – partly because Clinton is caught in the uncomfortable position of alienating her own African-American base if she takes too strong a stand in support of the police. She has to stay on the fence while Trump can toot the traditional GOP law-and-order melody.
Media, especially liberal media, have been desperate to find cracks in GOP support for Trump and jumped on Mrs. Trump’s speech while missing the powerful glue that will unite the GOP in November.
Although some GOP leaders have distanced themselves from Trump, the GOP base won’t.
Supreme Court rulings on gay marriage and Obamacare have become new reasons to fear a Clinton presidency, since a new president will have to decide the future makeup of the high court.
Gun ownership as well as abortion issues will unite the GOP regardless of who the presidential candidate is.
Trump seeking to win Reagan Democrats
Democrats are assuming the voting public will eventually wise up to what a demigod Trump is and vote for a much more mainstream candidate like Clinton.
This is a huge misperception, similar to the mistaken public perception in the 1968 Democratic Convention when a more radical part of the Democratic Party protested in the streets to move their candidates farther to the left. The violence in the streets temporarily showed the ruthlessness of the police. But many voters saw the Chicago convention as a breakdown in law and order, and this was seen as one of the contributing factors that allowed Nixon to narrowly win the presidency.
While movements like Black Lives Matter and the horrible shooting of members of the LGTB community in Orlando unify Clinton’s Democratic base, the assassination of police along with the terroristic attacks in Europe and America will resonate with the traditional GOP base and, more importantly, among those Democrats called Reagan Democrats. There is a good reason why so many Trump campaigners are comparing Trump to Reagan.
But opposition to Hillary Clinton is the real focus of the GOP campaign. Clinton will win New Jersey, New York and other traditionally Democratic states. But she will continue to struggle to win places like Ohio, Florida and even Pennsylvania.
Republicans will come home
Over the last six months, a number of prominent Republican leaders claim they will vote for Clinton over Trump. Even columnist and conservative legend George Will – the man who helped Reagan steal the 1980 election from then President Jimmy Carter – quit the Republican Party. Yet as the campaigns get closer to Election Day and Republicans envision Clinton as president, Trump will gather support.
Each attack on a cop and each new instance of terrorism benefits Trump, as does the perception that a Clinton presidency will mean four more years of President Barack Obama’s policies.
Mrs. Trump’s speech got a lot of attention at GOP convention, but that will fade. The public will hear many more excerpts from speeches made by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and from Trump himself. Law and order, public safety and Clinton will remain the rallying cry for bringing together the GOP.
Mostly ignored is the split in the Democratic Party. Most believe Sanders supporters will automatically vote for Clinton rather than see Trump elected president. The Trump campaign has been seeking to bring Sanders’s voters over to his side. How many Clinton retains could make a difference in some of the key states.
Meanwhile, one Sanders supporter who changed his Democratic registration to Independent after Clinton won the New Jersey primary took an unusually pragmatic view of the future.
“A Trump victory in the fall might be exactly what the Democratic Party needs,” he wrote. “It will be a chance to rid the party of the corporatist, Democratic technocrat liberals like the Clintons who are Republicans in disguise, and clear the path for the Sanders left wing of the party, who have passion on their side, to restore the party’s traditional values of social and economic justice.”
Al Sullivan may be reached at asullivan@hudsonreporter.com.