Mike Novak has been taking Hoboken Mayor Dawn Zimmer to task over the last few weeks, especially over the sale of the city garage.
These comments may be the first steps towards a run for 1st Ward next May, followed by a possible run for mayor in 2013.
Some local political observers claim Novak is building up his name recognition, and believe he is the natural counter to Zimmer, partly because, like former Mayor Peter Cammarano, Novak might be seen as attractive to Zimmer’s base of younger, new residents of the city.
Novak’s big challenge, however, won’t come from the Zimmer camp, but from Old Hoboken, if he decides to use the 1st Ward as the first step in his political career. He will need to beat incumbent 1st Ward Councilwoman Theresa Castellano.
While Novak may be untarnished by his service as chairman of the soon-to-be-jailed Cammarano’s mayoral transition team in 2009, his connection to Cammarano may hamper him from going negative against Castellano.
If he tries to tie her to former Mayor Anthony Russo, then Castellano can tie him to Cammarano and the 1st Ward election will have the makings of a very nasty campaign, and he will spend most of his campaign trying to explain why he really wasn’t part of the Cammarano machine rather than bringing out issues.
A businessman in Hoboken for more than 20 years, Novak – supporters claim – had a different philosophy from Cammarano. Novak even considered running for mayor in 2009, but then opted to support Cammarano over Zimmer.
Many see the Occhipinti-Lenz 4th Ward election in November as a forerunner of the ward races in May, since Zimmer came out of the fourth ward, and is believed to have strong support there – although by opening his campaign headquarters in the 4th Ward’s second district – Zimmer’s home district – Occhipinti is sending a message that he’s not scared to come after Lenz and Zimmer where they live.
Opponents call Occhipinti “another Cammarano,” claiming that behind the scenes are the same people who backed Cammarano.
“The very same people who pushed to get Cammarano elected, are behind Occhipinti,” one observer said. “He is backed by the same Hoboken Machine.”
Defenders, however, say Occhipinti is “Not Cammarano II,” and say Occhipinti is seeking to win this election the old fashioned way, by knocking on doors. Ryan Yacco is his campaign manager.
The big issue to date is the $20 million surplus the city suddenly wound up with, at a time when Hoboken is planning to lay off police.
Zimmer and Lenz do not want to spend it, and perhaps for good political reasons. If the Zimmer administration uses the surplus in January to cut taxes, then the Zimmer ticket stands a good chance of taking at least three of the six ward seats in May. This – combined with the three at-large council people already loyal to Zimmer – gives her a super majority on the council capable of passing any legislation it wants.
Some Zimmer opponents believe that she might move ahead with a revaluation of property following the reorganization meeting on July 1, 2011, which would be the political equivalent of General Sherman’s march through the south during the American Civil War, literally destroying old Hoboken, since the value of many long time residents would rise sharply and force people to leave the city.
Zimmer supporters say such rumors are merely a scare tactic to unite old Hoboken against Zimmer.
Redistricting will change the political landscape – but how?
The biggest political issue facing Hudson County and the state is redistricting, which will take place early in 2011. While the state is expected to lose one seat in the House of Representatives, this will likely be a seat in southern New Jersey – a likely Republican district. This might offset some of the gains Republicans are expected to make in the November elections. Some analysts predict Republicans will retake control of the House of Representatives.
The heaviest blow to state Democrats, however, will likely take place next year after the redistricting, when Republicans challenge to take control of the state legislature. In Hudson County, many are waiting to see if redistricting will put state Senators Nicholas Sacco and Brian Stack in the same district, forcing the two most powerful political machines to face off against each other.
While some believe that state Senator Sandra Cunningham will face a challenge next June, the question is whether she will run with or without Hudson County Democratic Organization support, or will join with Stack to build a new splinter Democratic organization. She is likely to win regardless, which would put her in a good position to run for mayor of Jersey City in 2013. While Councilman Steven Fulop already has a significant financial war chest set aside for his own race for mayor, Cunningham has connections statewide to allow her to quickly catch up if she decides she wants to run. Reports say she has been meeting with local fundraisers to explore putting together a ticket.
One of the issues already on the plate is the fate of Jersey City Schools Superintendent Charles Epps, who Fulop would like to see replaced, and whom Cunningham supports.
Al Sullivan may be reached at asullivan@hudsonreporter.com.