U.S. Sen. Barack Obama was scheduled to come to Jersey City after one of the most appalling displays of American media ineptitude since news pollsters predicted John Kerry would win Ohio in the 2004 presidential election.
Top news organizations spent most of Tuesday’s broadcasting a landslide victory for Obama in the New Hampshire primary – even going so far as to predict which aides of U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton would get the ax as the result of her loss.
Then, when voters gave the primary to Clinton, media outlets acted as if this was a Clinton come back victory and not deplorable coverage by the press.
Local Clinton supporters knew all along that something was wrong with the polling, even if depressed by the wall -to -wall barrage of misinformation being spread until New Hampshire’s voting ceased late in the day.
“We all knew it was going to be close from the beginning,” one particularly savvy politico said. “That’s why the polls were so confusing.”
“What amazes me is how fast media people turned on Hillary when they thought she was going to lose,” another strong Clinton supporter said. “Now that she won, all that’s gone away. But it is alarming.”
Clinton isn’t the only victim. The misleading polls issued from nearly every media outlets so pumped up the Obama campaign that he looked as if he flopped when the election results showed he came in second.
“He’s coming to Jersey City with the perception that he had a huge lead and he flopped when he never had any lead in the first place,” said an Obama supporter from Jersey City.
CThe candidate who wins here may win it all
This is not the first time Obama is coming to Hudson County, but it is the most critical since New Jersey is scheduled to hold its Democratic and Republican primaries in early February, which will likely decide who will be the candidates for president in November.
As with the rest of the nation, local leadership seems to be split between support for Obama and Clinton
. Gov. Jon Corzine declared for Clinton early. So did a host of local leaders. But a few held out for Obama, such as Jersey City Mayor Jerramiah Healy, and an Obama victory could give Healy, Newark Mayor Cory Booker, and others significant clout on the national stage.
Whether or not Obama goes on to win the party’s nomination, he has left a mark on the political landscape, suggesting that many of the positive and powerful feelings generated in the early 1960s by people like John F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. can be resurrected even in the more cynical 21st Century.
Clinton politics is very modern, based on a philosophy of adaptation notrather than confrontation. Clinton, like her husband, Pres.ident Bill Clinton, learned to adapt after political defeats, by reinventing their message so as to win again – sometimes even asfter the loss of philosophic high ground. For instance, instead of promoting universal healthcare as she did when Bill Clinton proposed it in the 1990s, Hillary Clinton’s message has changed, and she has and she adapted her message to work “with” the insurance companies to provide better coverage.
Obama comes to the election with a message suggesting less compromise and more standing up for what is right, an appealing message even if to some political observers, it is wishful thinking.
Hudson politics — if nothing else – has always erred on the side of practicality rather than rhetoric, so it comes as a bit of a shock that Obama might derail Clinton’s presidential train with his hopeful appeal.
Seasoned political observers like consultant Paul Swibinski are taken aback by the fact that the fight for the Democratic nomination comes to Hudson County in a really meaningful way. New Jersey’s moving its primary to Feb. 5 puts Hudson in the middle of the most critical battle of the election. Clinton has to win New Jersey and several other states on Feb. 5, or pack up and go home.
“We don’t know anything about Obama’s record,” he said. “He has very little foreign policy experience. While he could be inspiration for great changes, he could also be someone the Republicans can beat in November.”
Some Clinton supporters don’t see Obama as a knight in shinning armor, but rather a participant in a calculated behind -the -scenes effort, along with fellow Democratic candidate John Edwards, to put Clinton out of contention.
Obama’s strategy seems designed to build a base among normally non-aligned independents, and his appearance at St. Peter’s College could build a base of support among people not part of the traditional Democratic organization here, such as students and young professionals.
Clinton is expected to return to Hudson County in late January, possibly even making appearance at a fundraiser for Rep. Albio Sires at Puccini’s on Jan. 20., at which time she will have a chance to rebuiltd her momentum here.
Can Clinton, relying on old party loyalty, win on Feb. 5, or will Obama, rising on a swell of independents on college campuses’ like St. Peters’, unseat her?
Jackson’s death could affect presidential election
Following Wednesday’s rally, Bobby Jackson, a Jersey City political operative who had served as the first African-American president of the City Council, had a heart attack and passed away.
Jackson played a critical role in Sandra Cunningham and Anthony Chiapponne becoming legislative leaders in the 31st District. He also was part of a group that was helping forge strong ties to Newark Mayor Cory Booker. Jackson was expected to play a key role in the upcoming November 2008 mayoral battle in Bayonne. But more importantly, Jackson through the Urban Times News became a powerful voice inside his citys African-American Community. His death will leave a vast silence no one else is likely to fill, and could prevent an Obama victory in Hudson.
School funding could divide Hudson Democrats — again
State sSenate. and Union City Mayor Brian Stack has apparently decided to sit out this primary. Reports suggest he even declined to take part in a phone advertisement for Clinton, and that U.S. Senator Sen. Robert Menendez will do the spot instead.
A new disagreement appears to have come between Healy and Stack, largely over Stack’s support of Corzine’s new funding formula for schools in the state.
Charged by a decision to provide an equal education to all students in the state, Corzine has decided to shift some of the funding to poor and middle class suburban districts, despite thate fact that aging schools, overcrowding, and other costs make urban education more expensive to provide.
State Senator. Sandra Cunningham and the two outgoing state assemblymen from the 31st District, Louis Manzo and Charles Epps, voted against the governor’s plan.
Epps is also the superintendent of schools in Jersey City. Manzo and others have pointed out that Corzine seems determined not to offend the state’s wealthiest by shifting the financial burden for funding schools from property taxes to income taxes. But they say that his fears are moot. , thus making Corzine’s new formula unnecessary. Corzine apparently fears the rich will flee the state if such a taxfurther taxes are was imposed as a result of school funding. But people are already fleeing the state, mostly senior citizens and working class people, who won’t be able to afford the tax burden even with the chancge in the formula.
Jersey City council tickets starting to form
Jersey City Councilman Steve Lipski said he does not believe he will be replaced on the 2009 ticket for council with Tom Murphy.
But Lipski has taken an old fashioned political view of the world, mailing out holiday cards to people in Ward C, and providing meals for the hungry on the holidays. He said his organization fed as many as 700 people on Thanksgiving and gave out more than 150 turkeys over the holidays.
“I think I’m in solid with Mayor Healy, and I admire his work,; it complements what I am doing in Ward C,” Lipski said. He said, noting that he and Murphy are friends, and Murphy had given in no indication that he intends to run for the cCity cCouncil.
Former Councilman Junior Maldonado, who was defeated by Steve Fulop for council three years ago, said he is also looking for a ticket to run on and hopes that ticket will be with Healy.
“I’ve been involved with politics since I was 14 years old,” he said. “I started on the Paul Jordan campaign in the 1970s. Politics is in my blood.”
Maldonado said he’ll spend the first half of 2008 looking around to see what’s available, but that he should have a good idea of where he’ll be by the summer.
He estimated that a mayoral ticket with council members will cost about $1 million for the campaign. Many Jersey City mayoral races have cost more. Glenn Cunningham, he pointed out, spent about $2.5 million in 2001, and Tom DeGise, running against Cunningham, spent about $2 million.
Healy, he said, is usually in a good financial position to recruit and run a ticket.