Conventional political wisdom says there are two ways to run a campaign:
You canvas to see who your voters are then get them out, or you do all you can to suppress the opponents voters, hoping to keep enough of them home so you can win.
Usually you do both.
In Chris Campos’ loss to Dawn Zimmer in Hoboken’s fourth Ward, he apparently failed to do either – this despite the best efforts of former Jersey City Mayor Jerry McCann.
Political observers from both sides claim Campos failed to implement a campaign that would get out his own base, relying almost entirely on the McCann-orchestrated negative campaign.
In some cases, McCann’s tactics at getting Campos into a special election by challenging Zimmer’s absentee ballots from the June run off may have backfired. In several locations, even Campos’s supporters claim voters – who might have voted for Campos in the past – seemed angry over the rhetoric and the aggressive legal tactics used in court.
Yet more importantly, as Zimmer supporters went through the traditional routines of getting out the vote, the Campos team dragged people to the polls, regardless of whom those voters would pull the lever for.
“You’re supposed to canvas to see who is going to likely vote for you then get those people out,” said one seasoned campaigner. “The Campos people didn’t canvas. They just brought people to the polls. So they might have been bringing people to vote who were going to vote for Zimmer.”
The bad news didn’t just come on election night when the polls closed. For several days ahead of the election, people connected with Campos’ ally, Union City Brian Stack, were already expressing some concern about Campos’ lack of election savvy. While Zimmer’s legions scoured the fourth ward for votes they needed to win, Campos appeared too laid back and too confident.
“This is what happens when you were brought into politics as part of a political machine,” said another observer. “Campos rode into office because he was with the right people. He never learned the nuts and bolts of how to get elected. This showed in this election.”
Perhaps as importantly, McCann’s traditional tactics of taunting his opponents may well have motivated Zimmer supporters to get out to the polls.
People on both sides claim the election showed more evidence as to why McCann’s style of campaign doesn’t work.
“Jerry McCann tried to do this when Lou Manzo ran for mayor of Jersey City, and it didn’t work then,” said one observer, who worked for Campos on election day. “McCann tried it again when Manzo ran for state Senate against Sandra Cunningham, and it didn’t work then either. Now, he tried it again in Hoboken, and it didn’t work here.”
Hands off the fourth ward?
Although the Campos-Zimmer battle is being interpreted as the latest round in a large battle for control of the Democratic Party in Hudson County, many are saying Union City Mayor Brian Stack and North Bergen Mayor Nicholas Sacco stayed out of the race for the most part.
Stack’s reform Democrats apparently supported Campos, while the traditional Hudson County Democratic Organization supposed Zimmer.
“A handful of workers went down into Hoboken for each side,” said one observer for the Stack team. “But for the most part it was a local race and we kept it that way. The Zimmer people worked hard and they earned their victory.”
But those supporting the Stack camp, say Hoboken still remains firmly in their hands as far as the council votes are concerned.
“Nothing has changed from last spring. We had six votes then and we still have six votes,” this observer said.
Many on the Stack side are playing down the overall impact of the Zimmer victory for the later races such as next June’s Democratic primary for Hoboken’s freeholder seat, while key people behind Zimmer claimed it had huge implications.
“Maurice Fitzgibbons should be worried,” said one Zimmer supported. “This victory gives life to a Frank Raia challenge for that seat.”
A Fitzgibbons supporter, however, laughed off the idea.
“Maurice should pay Raia to run against him,” this observer said. “Raia has run for so many seats and lost, Maurice should look forward to such a challenge.”
Raia, of course, was one of the hardest working Zimmer supporters in her fourth ward victory.
Yet there are other winners in the fourth ward campaign. Hoboken Councilman Michael Russo looks like a genius for staying out of the middle of the fight, giving him yet another leg up for his run to become Hoboken Mayor in 2009.
Despite the fight not being regional, the Zimmer victory gives the HCDO and Sacco a strong base in Hoboken, despite Stack’s council majority.
No peace treaty after all
The hopes for a peace treaty between the two Democratic factions suffered another serious set back last week when Stack opened his four district offices throughout the 33 rd district, in Guttenberg, West New York, Hoboken and Union City, staking his claim to the political landscape despite opposition from West New York Mayor Sal Vega.
In fact, an army of Stack supporters marched from Union City into West New York taunting Vega with cheers and chants of “Brian” that could easily be heard in West New York city hall.
Yet despite the political posturing, the war is in a lull largely because both sides have blown their financial war chests and need time to rebuild them before the conflict can resume.
How this will affect Stack’s annual giving away of turkeys and toys for Thanksgiving and Christmas remains to be seen. This may also explain why the fourth ward race in Hoboken didn’t generate support from either side. Nobody had the money.
The freeholder battle, however, appears to be garnering steam, and questions linger as to whom will be Union City Freeholder. Reports suggest that Tilo Rivas could be replaced by Kennedy Ng. Long time Stack opponent Jose Falto has apparently already opened a campaign office to challenge whoever Stack supports in Union City.